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本文设计两种不同的政策方案,运用GTAP模型对中澳自由贸易区建立可能给中国羊毛及相关产业带来的影响进行了情境模拟。结果表明:中澳自由贸易区建立对中国经济发展具有促进作用。在羊毛产业开放的条件下,中国羊毛产业将受到不利影响,而纺织业和服装业却将获益,并且纺织业和服装业的获益大于羊毛产业的受损;在对羊毛产业采取特殊保护措施时,羊毛产业、纺织业和服装业都会获益。从国民经济整体发展、羊毛及相关产业的生产和贸易情况来看,在建立中澳自由贸易区时采取保护羊毛产业的政策略好于完全放开羊毛产业。
This paper designs two different policy options and uses the GTAP model to simulate the impact that China-Australia Free Trade Area may have on China’s wool and related industries. The results show that the establishment of the Sino-Australian Free Trade Area can promote China’s economic development. Under the condition of the openness of the wool industry, the Chinese wool industry will be adversely affected, while the textile and garment industries will benefit, and the benefit of the textile and garment industries will be greater than that of the wool industry. In the case of the wool industry, special protection Wool industry, textile industry and garment industry will benefit from this measure. From the perspective of the overall development of the national economy and the production and trade of wool and related industries, the policy of protecting the wool industry in establishing the China-Australia free trade zone is slightly better than completely liberalizing the wool industry.