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中国股市指数纳入MSCI或为期不远,人民币国际化也将日益引人注目。近期,我国A股市场重新热闹起来——半年来A股指数已翻番,一度冲至4000点以上。但与此同时,2015年第一季度的国内经济增长或并不尽如人意。笔者认为,资本市场是宏观经济提前、放大、扭曲的反映。以此观察今年宏观经济的发展,应重点关注以下三个方面:通胀可能被低估、楼市力图突破困境以及股市投资风格偏向成长股。
China’s stock market index into the MSCI or not far, the renminbi internationalization will also become increasingly eye-catching. Recently, China’s A-share market reenergized - A-share index has doubled in the past six months, once rushed to more than 4,000 points. In the meantime, however, the domestic economic growth in the first quarter of 2015 is not satisfactory either. In my opinion, the capital market is a reflection of macroeconomic advance, amplification and distortion. In view of this year’s macroeconomic development, we should focus on the following three aspects: inflation may be underestimated, the property market is trying to break through the predicament and the stock market investment style tends to growth stocks.