提出了一种以 FA RIMA( p,d,q)模型为基础 ,对 MPEG VBR业务在综合业务网络传输的带宽进行动态分配的新方法 .FARIMA( p,d,q)模型既可描述业务的长相关特性 ,又可描述业务的短相关特性 ,以其为基础的业务预测较准确 .文中对建模和预报方法进行了简化 ,并通过仿真进行了验证 .结果表明本方法可减少对缓冲区的需求 ,并减少了丢包率 A new method to dynamically allocate the bandwidth of MPEG VBR service to the integrated service network is proposed based on the FA RIMA (p, d, q) model. The FARIMA (p, d, q) model can describe the service The long-term correlation characteristics, and the short-related characteristics of the business, the business forecast based on it is more accurate.The modeling and forecasting methods are simplified and verified by simulation.The results show that this method can reduce the impact on the buffer zone The demand, and reduce the loss rate