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造成中长期水文气象要素变化的因素多而且复杂，用单一的线性关系选择预报因子建立预报方程有可能把较好的预报因子漏掉。提出预报因子及预报方程的优化方法，采用多种非线性函数类型进行相关系数的计算。比较，确定优化预报团于建立优化预报方程，这样选择到的预报困子更符合实际，建立的预报方程具有更好的拟会预报效果。在预报方程建立过程中参数的计算是难点，使用二次插值和黄金分割法相结合计算参数α获得了成功。
The hydrological and meteorological elements that cause long-term changes in the many and complex factors, using a single linear relationship between the selection of the forecasting factor to establish the forecasting equation may have missed the better forecasting factor. Put forward the forecasting factor and forecasting equation optimization method, using a variety of non-linear function type correlation coefficient calculation. By comparison, the optimal forecasting group is determined to establish the optimal forecasting equation, so that the selected predator is more realistic and the established forecasting equation has a better predictive effect. It is difficult to calculate the parameters in the process of establishing the forecasting equation. Successfully calculated the parameter α using quadratic interpolation and golden section method.