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改革开放以来,我国城镇化率不断提高,城镇化对农村的影响日益多元和广泛深刻。本文将城镇化细分为经济城镇化、土地城镇化和人口城镇化等三个因素,并分析其影响农村生活能源消费的作用机制:经济城镇化中城镇GDP的影响是倒U型关系,即随着城镇经济不断发展,农村生活能源消费量先增加,达到峰值后再下降。农村GDP的影响是正向的;土地城镇化的影响是随着区域经济的发展从负转向正;人口城镇化的影响为正且相对较小。为验证理论假说,以我国1997~2012年省级面板数据,建立全国、东部、中部和西部区域的固定(随机)效应模型分析,并在实证分析基础上提出政策建议。
Since the reform and opening up, the rate of urbanization in our country has continuously increased, and the impact of urbanization on rural areas has become increasingly diverse and profound. In this paper, the urbanization is subdivided into three factors: economic urbanization, land urbanization and population urbanization, and the analysis of the mechanism that affects the energy consumption of rural life: the effect of urban GDP on economic urbanization is inverted U-shaped relationship, that is, With the continuous development of urban economy, energy consumption in rural areas first increased, reaching a peak before declining. The impact of rural GDP is positive; the impact of land urbanization is changing from negative to positive with the development of regional economy; and the impact of urbanization on population is positive and relatively small. In order to verify the theoretical hypothesis, a fixed (random) effect model of the whole country, the eastern part, the middle part and the western part of China was established based on the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2012 in our country. Based on the empirical analysis, policy suggestions were put forward.