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本文利用2008~2012年乌江流域洪家渡水电站逐日入库流量、库水位和面雨量资料进行了相关分析和多元回归计算,针对电站500 m3/s和1000 m3/s两个关键入库流量,研究给出了该电站流域面雨量阈值指标。结果表明:洪家渡水电站库容水位涨落与入库流量密切相关,入库流量大于500 m3/s时,水位上涨明显;电站入库流量与前日流量相关性最好,相关系数R2达0.778,入库流量与前十日累积面雨量、前日面雨量相关系数R2分别为0.697和0.333;面雨量阈值表明,前日入库流量相对较小时,需要较大的面雨量才有可能形成500 m3/s或1000 m3/s的流量,而前日入库流量相对较大时,仅需要相对较小的面雨量就有可能形成500 m3/s或1000 m3/s的流量。
In this paper, the correlation analysis and multivariate regression calculation were used to calculate daily inflow, reservoir water level and surface rainfall data of Hongjiadu Hydropower Station in Wujiang River Basin from 2008 to 2012. According to the two key inflow rates of 500 m3 / s and 1000 m3 / s, The research gives the threshold of surface rainfall in this station. The results show that the fluctuation of reservoir water level at Hongjiadu Hydropower Station is closely related to the inflow rate. When the inflow rate is more than 500 m3 / s, the water level increases obviously. The correlation between the inflow rate and the previous day flow rate is the best, with a correlation coefficient R2 of 0.778. The correlation coefficients between the inflow and the accumulative surface rainfall in the first ten days are R2 = 0.697 and 0.333, respectively. The surface rainfall thresholds indicate that when the inflow rate of the previous day is relatively small, it requires a large amount of surface rainfall to form 500 m3 / s Or 1000 m3 / s, whereas the previous day’s relatively large inflows require only 500 m3 / s or 1000 m3 / s for a relatively small amount of surface rainfall.