经济上的许多术语,人们一般不会去仔细区分。比如通货膨胀与物价上涨,人们经常通用。这个通用有道理。通胀就是相对于物资来说,货币发多了。货币发多了自然会造成物价上涨,这几乎是必然的。所以有专家说,M2的增长率减GDP的增长率可以确定通胀指数,而通胀指数就是物价上涨指数。但笔者认为,通胀指数只反映货币发行情况,由货币发行到物价涨跌,还有一个过程。在这个过程中,还有许多别的因素参和进去。事实上确实存在这样的情况,有时候货币发行过多,理论上应当严重通胀,但物价并没有明显上涨;反之,有时候货币发行不多,理论上并没有通胀,但物价莫名其妙地飞涨起来。原因是,第一,物价涨跌有一个延迟效应。今年的货币发行情 Many terms in economics, people generally do not carefully distinguish. Such as inflation and price increases, people are often used. This common makes sense. Inflation is relative to supplies, the currency hair more. It is almost inevitable that more money will naturally result in higher prices. Therefore, some experts said that the growth rate of M2 by GDP growth rate can determine the inflation index, inflation index is the price index. However, I believe that the inflation index reflects only the issue of currency, from the currency issue to the price change, there is a process. There are many other factors involved in this process. In fact, the situation does exist. In some cases, excessive currency issuance may theoretically lead to serious inflation, but prices have not risen markedly. Conversely, there are times when the issue of currency is limited and there is no inflation in theory, but the prices soar inexplicably. The reason is that, first, there is a delay effect on price changes. This year’s currency issue