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为预测民航安全业绩发展趋势,通过散点图、相关系数、主因子分析等多种统计方法,筛选5大类、共计20项与民航安全运行关系密切的社会经济指标,建立民航综合安全指数MLR模型;依据中国民航在1995—2014年间的安全生产历史数据,分析其发展历史、现状、特征与存在的问题,并利用ARIMA模型进行预测分析。结果表明,人员素质因子和技术能力因子对民航安全均有显著影响;民航安全综合指数预测值在2015—2017年间总体稳定;MLR方法和ARIMA模型对民航安全趋势的耦合分析结果良好。
In order to predict the development trend of civil aviation safety performance, five kinds of statistical methods such as scatter chart, correlation coefficient and principal factor analysis were used to select a total of 20 socio-economic indicators closely related to the safe operation of civil aviation, and establish the comprehensive safety index MLR According to the safety production history data of Civil Aviation of China from 1995 to 2014, the paper analyzes its development history, current situation, characteristics and existing problems, and uses ARIMA model to forecast and analyze. The results show that both personnel quality factor and technical capability factor have significant impact on civil aviation safety. The predicted value of civil aviation safety composite index is generally stable from 2015 to 2017. The coupling analysis of MLR and ARIMA models to civil aviation safety trends shows good results.