近年来，我国学者试用许多方法进行尘肺预测研究［’-’］，但目前还没有公认的较理想的预测方法。我们根据几个煤矿尘肺流行病学调查资料，分别对多种预测方法与模型进行了比较和评价，报告如下。1预测方法尘肺的发生发展受多种因素影响，这些影响因素多带有不确定性。方积乾D In recent years, Chinese scholars have tried many methods to study the prediction of pneumoconiosis [’-’], but there is no generally accepted and better prediction method. Based on several epidemiological survey data of pneumoconiosis in coal mines, we compared and evaluated various prediction methods and models respectively and reported the following. 1 prediction method The occurrence and development of pneumoconiosis is affected by many factors, many of these factors with uncertainty. Square plot dry D