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为了比较指数平滑和BASS模型两种需求预测方法对供应链库存产生的影响,本文建立了一个基于系统动力学的三阶段短生命周期产品供应链模型。采用两种方法预测的需求值,分析其对供应链中各级库存和市场需求满足的影响。为了突出短生命周期产品的特点,文章设置了两种情况下的安全库存函数进行仿真实验。仿真结果表明:BASS模型预测的需求数据使得供应链库存小于指数平滑法下的供应链库存;同时BASS模型预测的需求数据带来的市场需求满足度高于指数平滑法下的市场需求满足度。
In order to compare the impact of exponential smoothing and BASS model two kinds of demand forecasting methods on supply chain inventory, a three-stage short-life product supply chain model based on system dynamics was established. The demand values predicted by the two methods are used to analyze the impact of inventory demand and market demand satisfaction at all levels in the supply chain. In order to highlight the characteristics of short life cycle products, the article set up two cases of safety stock function simulation experiment. The simulation results show that the demand data predicted by the BASS model makes the supply chain inventory smaller than the supply chain inventory under the exponential smoothing method; meanwhile, the market demand satisfaction brought by the demand data predicted by the BASS model is higher than the market demand satisfaction under the exponential smoothing method.