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突发公共安全事件中的人员伤亡取决于危害因素与人群的时空分布的重合程度,建立健全的居民生活模式参数模型库可为地震等突发性公共安全风险防范和应急管理提供依据。报告了在中国较大范围开展的村镇居民生活模式参数问卷调查(HAPRRES)结果,包括生活模式参数、优化建模方法和仿真方法等。着重分析了种植业者群体的生活模式参数及其模型,发现区分不同的日工作安排(以日工作段数为参数)对活动参数分别建模,并且模型稳健性较好。利用模型库仿真再现得到人群分布,拟合出我国地震中毁坏建筑物内处于睡眠或清醒状态居民的不同死亡率,证实不同空间和活动状态的居民的伤亡概率有显著差异。
The casualty in public emergencies depends on the coincidence of the hazard factors and the spatial and temporal distribution of the population. Establishing a sound library of resident life model parameters can provide a basis for emergency public-security risk prevention and emergency management such as earthquake. Reported results of a questionnaire survey on the lifestyle of villagers living in a large area in China (HAPRRES), including life mode parameters, optimization modeling methods and simulation methods. The author mainly analyzed the life mode parameters and their models of the crop farmer groups. It was found that different daily work schedules (with the number of daily work as the parameter) modeled the activity parameters respectively, and the robustness of the model was better. The population distribution is obtained by using the model library simulation, and the different mortality rates of the residents who sleep or awake in the destroyed buildings in China’s earthquake are fitted to prove that there are significant differences in the probability of casualties between residents in different space and activity status.