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2012年,国际粮价总体呈现先弱后强走势,年底价格有所回落,但较年初仍有较大幅度提高,全年平均水平较2011年基本持平。2012年,国际粮食现货和期货平均价格分别比2011年上涨0.96%和下跌1.53%,其中,玉米现货和期货平均价格同比分别上涨7%和2%,小麦现货和期货平均价格同比分别上涨4%和6%,泰国大米现货、芝加哥糙米期货平均价格同比分别上涨5%和1.2%。在全球经济将趋于回暖、全球粮食产需关系偏紧的影响下,预计2013年国际粮价总体将呈高位运行状态。其中,粮食供需方面,据美国农业部报告,201213年度全球粮食总产量预计为22.39亿t,比201112年度下降3.22%,产需关系由上年度的产高于需515万t转变为产不足需4021万t,玉米、小麦及大米均产不足需。
In 2012, the overall international food price showed a trend of first weakness and then strong. The price dropped somewhat at the end of the year, but still a substantial increase from the beginning of the year. The annual average was basically the same level as in 2011. In 2012, the average spot price of international grain spot and futures rose 0.96% and 1.53% respectively over 2011 levels. The average spot and spot prices of corn rose 7% and 2% respectively over the same period of last year while the average spot and spot prices of wheat rose 4% And 6% respectively. Thai rice spot and Chicago brown rice futures rose 5% and 1.2% respectively on a year-on-year basis. Under the influence of the global economy will pick up and the global relationship between grain production and demand is tight, it is estimated that the overall international food price will be in a high state in 2013. In terms of food supply and demand, according to USDA’s report, the global grain output in 2012-13 is estimated to be 2.239 billion tons, down 3.22% from 2011-12, and the relationship between production and demand is higher than that of 5.15 million tons in the previous year To produce less than 40.21 million t, corn, wheat and rice are not enough to produce.