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4年一个坎连续3年高增长,人们会合理推测第4年也会继续高增长。中国的现实恰恰相反,连续高增长的极限大约是3年。当然,行业“井喷”带来的行业连续增长是例外。连续多年高增长不会无缘无故,是有前提的。一般来说,连续高增长是营销模式大调整的结果,调整的周期大约是4年~5年,即1年左右时间的调整和整顿(低增长),以及连续3年左右的高增长。
For four consecutive years, there have been three consecutive years of high growth. People will reasonably suppose that the fourth year will continue to grow at a high rate. The reality in China is just the opposite. The limit to continuous high growth is about three years. Of course, the industry “blowout” brought about by the continuous growth of the industry is an exception. For many years, high growth will not be without cause, there is a prerequisite. In general, continuous high growth is the result of a major adjustment of the marketing model. The adjustment period is about 4 to 5 years, that is, adjustment and consolidation (low growth) of about 1 year and high growth for 3 consecutive years.