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根据三要素生产函数,从统计角度分析中国的能源消费与工业产出之间的动态关系。实证结果表明:工业产出与能源消费、资本和劳动力要素投入之间存在着长期稳定的关系。长期来看,工业产出每增加一个百分点,会伴随着能源消费增加0.7个百分点,而且能源消费在时间上领先于整个工业经济的发展。这一结论的政策含义在于:未来一段时间内要维持经济的持续稳定增长,能源安全必然构成越来越突出的问题,政府应大力推进旨在提高能源利用效率的管理技术改革和产业结构调整。在当前市场机制不完善的条件下,适当的能源先行发展战略是合适的。
According to the production function of three factors, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between energy consumption and industrial output in China from a statistical point of view. The empirical results show that there is a long-term and stable relationship between industrial output and energy consumption, capital and labor input. In the long run, every one percentage point increase in industrial output will be accompanied by a 0.7 percentage point increase in energy consumption, and energy consumption will lead the development of the industrial economy in terms of time. The policy implications of this conclusion are as follows: In order to maintain sustained and steady economic growth in the near future, energy security will inevitably become an increasingly prominent issue. The government should vigorously promote management reform and industrial restructuring aimed at improving energy efficiency. In the current market mechanism is not perfect conditions, the appropriate energy development strategy is appropriate.