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以人均国民生产总值为代表的中等发达国家的发展水平如果按照购买力平价计算,是中国目前发展水平的十倍。中等发达国家未来60年的人均GNP以每年平均2%到2.5%的速度增长的可能性较大,我国要在2050年赶上中等发达国家的发展水平,人均GNP每年平均需要增长6%——6.5%,GNP总量每年平均需要增长6.8%—7.3%。如果我国来来的增长速度较低。在本世纪末达到小康发展水平和下个世纪中叶赶上中等发达国家水平将是不可能的;甚至连就业和农业过剩劳动力的转移问题都无法解决。有的学者分析速度与通货膨胀时认为,低速度稳定一些,通货膨胀率低一些。但世界各国经济发展的经验证明,有些国家在其经济高速发展的时期,通货膨胀率并不太高;而有很多低速度增长的国家长期存在着通货膨胀问题,有的甚至很严重。因此,高速度不一定就会造成通货膨胀,关键在于效益如何。
The level of development of the medium-sized developed countries represented by GNP per capita, if calculated on purchasing power parity terms, is ten times that of China’s current level of development. In mid-sized developed countries, GNP per capita is expected to increase at an average rate of 2% to 2.5% per annum over the next 60 years. China will catch up with the level of development of the moderately-developed countries by 2050, and average annual GNP per capita needs to increase by 6% 6.5%, the average annual GNP needs to grow by 6.8% -7.3%. If our country comes to a lower growth rate. By the end of this century it will be impossible to catch up with the level of well-to-do development in the middle of the next century and to catch up with the level of the moderately developed countries. Even the problem of the transfer of employment and surplus labor force can not be solved. Some scholars analyze the speed and inflation that some low-speed stability, the inflation rate is lower. However, experience in the economic development of various countries in the world shows that in some countries, the rate of inflation is not too high during its rapid economic growth. In many countries with low-speed growth, the problem of inflation is long-term and some are even very serious. Therefore, the high speed will not necessarily result in inflation, the key is how effective.