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洪水资源化是解决当前及以后水资源短缺危机的一条重要途径。汛限水位调整是洪水资源化中常用的措施,它关系着水库的防洪效益和防洪风险。因此,洪水资源化中的汛限水位调整是一种风险决策。本文以三峡水库洪水资源化问题为背景,应用泛系观控理论研究了三峡水库洪水资源化多目标决策汛限水位组合调控方案的风险及其比较收益,并从信息熵的角度以约束信息量对调控手段的风险进行了定性及定量分析,结果表明该分析技术运作效果较好,揭示了汛限水位调整风险的内在规定性,有助于合理地决策,从而为洪水资源化中风险分析提供了新的研究手段,值得进一步研究和应用。
Flooding is an important way to solve the current and future crisis of water shortage. Flood limited water level adjustment is a commonly used measure in flood resources, which is related to the reservoir flood control benefits and flood risk. Therefore, flood control water level adjustment is a risk-based decision-making. In this paper, based on flood resourceization of the Three Gorges Reservoir, this paper studies the risk and comparative benefits of flood control and water level combination control of Three Gorges Reservoir flood control based on multi-objective decision-making theory. From the perspective of information entropy, The results show that the analysis technique works well and reveals the inherent regulation of the risk adjustment of flood limited water level, which is helpful to make a reasonable decision so as to provide risk analysis for flood resource utilization. A new research means, it is worth further study and application.