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目的通过分析南通市通州区2008—2015年甲乙类肠道传染病的流行特征,预测发病趋势,为制定防控对策提供科学依据。方法采用SPSS软件进行描述性分析和卡方检验,利用灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型建立方程进行发病趋势预测。结果 2008—2015年南通市通州区累计报告甲乙类肠道传染病发病2 523例,年均发病率为26.34/10万,男性发病率(35.24/10万)高于女性(18.41/10万)。发病高峰在3至4月份,发病年龄以青壮年为主,职业以农民为主。采用灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型拟合2008—2015年通州区甲乙类肠道传染病发病率,建立预测方程为Y(t)=-237.202 614e~(-0.170209(t-1))+279.242 614,2016、2017年预测发病率分别为11.28/10万、9.51/10万。结论南通市通州区甲乙类肠道传染病防控工作取得显著成效,未来的几年内,如无较大规模的疫情暴发,发病率仍会保持平稳下降趋势,需继续坚持政府领导、部门配合、全社会共同参与的综合性防治对策,努力遏制肠道传染病的暴发和流行,巩固防制成果。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of Class A and B infectious diseases in Tongzhou District of Nantong City from 2008 to 2015 and predict the trend of the incidence and provide a scientific basis for the development of prevention and control measures. Methods SPSS software was used to carry out descriptive analysis and chi-square test, and the gray system GM (1,1) prediction model was used to establish the trend of disease trend prediction. Results Totally 2 523 cases of Class A and B enteric infectious diseases were reported in Tongzhou District of Nantong City from 2008 to 2015, with an average annual incidence rate of 26.34 / 100 000. The incidence of male (35.24 / 100000) was higher than that of female (18.41 / 100000) . Peak incidence in March to April, the age of onset to young and middle-aged, dominated by farmers. The gray system GM (1,1) prediction model was used to fit the incidence of Class A and B intestinal infectious diseases in Tongzhou District from 2008 to 2015. The prediction equation was Y (t) = - 237.202 614e ~ (-0.170209 (t-1)) +279.242 The predicted incidence rates in 614, 2016 and 2017 were 11.28 / 100,000 and 9.51 / 100,000 respectively. Conclusion The prevention and control of Class A and B intestinal infectious diseases in Tongzhou District of Nantong City achieved remarkable results. In the next few years, if there is no outbreak of large-scale epidemic, the incidence will still keep a steady downward trend. It is necessary to continue to adhere to the guidance of the government, The whole society should take part in the comprehensive prevention and control measures, endeavor to curb the outbreak and epidemic of intestinal infectious diseases and consolidate the results of prevention and control.