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为了明确黄河北干流的径流变化规律以及和季风的关系,研究将黄河北干流划分为3个河段(上游:河口-吴堡、中游:吴堡-龙门,下游:龙门-潼关),并将时间尺度分为小尺度(<10 a)、中尺度(10~20 a)和大(≥20 a)尺度,应用该区域1919~2006年4个水文站的年天然径流数据、亚洲季风指数和西风指数,采用线性回归和墨西哥帽小波变换的方法分析了天然径流变化规律,并用累积距平法比较了径流和季风的相关性。结果表明,径流量在近50 a内呈明显减少的趋势,特别是下游段龙门-潼关区间径流减少显著。黄河北干流在小尺度上有一个大约6 a的径流丰-枯周期,在中尺度上有一个约10~15 a的丰枯周期变化,大尺度上中上游的丰枯周期约为25 a。径流距平累积和亚洲季风指数距平累积呈显著正相关,由此推测影响径流变化的自然因素中亚洲季风为正相的影响,尤其是处在较上游的区域受影响更大,受到西风显著的反相影响。其结果期望能为黄土高原水资源调控提供理论参考。
In order to clarify the regularity of runoff variation and the relationship with the monsoon in the north part of the Yellow River, the study divided the northern Yellow River into three sections (upstream: estuary - Wubao, middle reaches: Wubao - Longmen, downstream: Longmen - Tongguan) The time scale is divided into small scale (<10 a), mesoscale (10-20 a) and large (≥20 a) scale. The annual runoff data of 4 hydrological stations in this area from 1919 to 2006 are used. The Asian monsoon index and The westerly wind index, the linear regression and the Mexican hat wavelet transform method were used to analyze the natural runoff variation, and the cumulative distance method was used to compare the runoff and monsoon correlation. The results showed that the runoff decreased obviously in the past 50 years, especially in the Longmen-Tongguan section of downstream. On the small scale, there is a runoff abundance-dry period of about 6 years on the small scale, with a period of about 10-15 years on the mesoscale with a period of about 10-15 years, with a period of about 25 years on the large scale. It is speculated that there is a significant positive correlation between runoff cumulation and Asian mean monsoon accumulation, suggesting that the Asian monsoon is a natural factor affecting the runoff, especially in the upper reaches of the region, and significantly affected by the westerly wind The opposite effect. The results are expected to provide theoretical reference for the regulation of water resources in the Loess Plateau.