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若将“蛛网模型”和“均衡移动模型”结合起来,探讨农产品价格决定和价格波动中的关键因素及其相互作用的机理,就会得如下结论:我国农产品的合约制生产与流通组织化模式发展滞后,自然因素的随机作用造成农户生产决策的混同均衡,大量资金频繁进出农产品生产领域和流通环节,以及消费偏好的意外变化,这种种因素的“共振作用”就使得农产品价格波动屡屡发生“过山车”现象。而农产品合约制生产与流通的组织化模式的建立,应为治理农产品价格波动“过山车”现象的有效策略。
If we combine “cobweb model ” and “equilibrium movement model ” to explore the key factors in price decision and price fluctuation of agricultural products and the mechanism of their interaction, we will get the following conclusions: Contractual production of agricultural products in China and The mode of circulation and organization has lagged behind. The random effect of natural factors resulted in a balanced mix of production decisions of farmers and a large amount of capital moving in and out of agricultural products production and circulation, as well as unexpected changes in consumer preferences. The “resonance effect” of these factors makes Frequent fluctuations in agricultural prices “roller coaster ” phenomenon. The establishment of a contractual system for the production and distribution of agricultural products should be an effective strategy to control the phenomenon of “roller coaster” fluctuations in agricultural product prices.