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本文在考虑中国预算外投资和国有企业投资的前提下,通过重新分解并估算公共投资和私人投资,同时结合改进的新古典投资模型对中国发展过程中公共投资对私人投资的作用进行了研究。研究结果表明中国公共投资对私人投资的实际拉动作用显著为负,而资本成本对私人投资贡献显著为正。本文主要结论与传统研究相反,主要是因为数据分解方法的差异和理论前提不同,另一原因在于私人部门缺乏可得资本,不符合西方公共投资理论中有关资本充足的假定,在研究中不经改进地使用西方经济学中经典的研究方法分析中国的现实问题,会使结果出现偏误。
This paper studies the role of public investment in private investment in China’s development process by re-decomposing and estimating public investment and private investment while considering China’s extrabudgetary investment and state-owned enterprise investment. The results show that the actual pulling effect of public investment on private investment in China is significantly negative while the contribution of capital cost to private investment is significantly positive. The main conclusion of this paper is the opposite of the traditional research, mainly due to the difference of the data decomposition method and the theoretical premise. Another reason is that the private sector lacks available capital and does not accord with the assumption of capital adequacy in western public investment theory. The improved use of classical research methods in Western economics to analyze China’s realities can lead to errors in results.