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本文首先根据中国收入分配制度的特点将消费者的生命周期区分为退休前和退休后,分别设置新古典经济学生命周期消费理论的跨期预算约束;在生命不确定性的假设下,推导出了消费者的最优消费路径。然后,依据1988年1月~2008年12月天津市的城市住户调查数据,利用动态伪面板数据模型的实证分析为理论结果提供了经验证据。另外,实证分析发现,天津市城镇居民消费的跨期替代弹性非常小(0.008),我国货币政策的利率工具对熨平总需求波动的功效很有限;所以,我国偏低的消费者跨期替代弹性是导致我国长期的低(负)利率政策并未发挥出拉动消费需求增长的主要原因。因此,完善社会保障机制、转变消费观念依然是拉动内需的必由之路;其次,城镇居民的当前消费倾向在不同年龄群体之间存在显著差别,消费的跨期替代弹性呈现出“U”形特征。另外,城镇居民的家庭人均消费增长率的波动周期为三个月。
Based on the characteristics of China’s income distribution system, this paper divides the consumer’s life cycle into pre-retirement and post-retirement, and sets the intertemporal budget constraints of the neoclassical economics life cycle consumption theory respectively. Under the assumption of uncertainty of life, The optimal consumer spending path. Then, based on the survey data of urban households in Tianjin from January 1988 to December 2008, the empirical analysis based on the dynamic data model of the pseudo-panel provides empirical evidence for the theoretical results. In addition, the empirical analysis shows that the intertemporal substitution elasticity of urban residents’ consumption in Tianjin is very small (0.008). The interest rate instruments of China’s monetary policy have a limited effect on the total iron and steel supply. Therefore, the low-end consumers Elasticity is the main reason that China’s long-term low (negative) interest rate policy has not played a role in stimulating the growth of consumer demand. Therefore, perfecting social security mechanism and changing consumer attitudes are still the only way to stimulate domestic demand. Secondly, the current consumption tendencies of urban residents are significantly different among different age groups, and the intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption presents “U” shaped features . In addition, the monthly growth rate of urban per capita consumption growth rate of three months.