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政府财政支出与居民消费之间的关系,理论界一直存在争议。本文应用结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)的脉冲响应函数,考察了财政支农对农村居民消费影响的动态效应,结果表明:农民消费支出对生产性支出新息冲击的响应和累计响应是正向的,生产性支出对农村居民消费产生了“挤入效应”;农民消费支出对非生产性支出新息冲击的响应和累计响应整体上是反向的,非生产性支出对农村居民消费产生“挤出效应”。在此基础上,最后提出几点对策建议。
The relationship between government fiscal expenditure and household consumption has always been controversial in theorists. In this paper, we use the impulse response function of structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) to investigate the dynamic effect of financial support for rural residents on the consumption of rural residents. The results show that the response and cumulative response of rural consumer expenditure to the impact of productive expenditure is positive , The productive expenditure has a “crowding-in effect” on the consumption of rural residents; the response and cumulative response of peasant consumer spending to the impact of the non-productive expenditure on the new interest rate have been reversed on the whole, and the non-productive expenditure has had an impact on the rural residents’ consumption “Extrusion effect ”. On this basis, finally put forward some countermeasures and suggestions.