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目的基于“3年化疫”理论研究北京地区痢疾发病与3年前及当年气象因素的相关性。方法利用北京地区1970—2004年35年的痢疾发病数据和同期气象数据,进行相关和回归的统计学分析,探讨痢疾发病与3年前及当年气象因素之间的相关性。结果痢疾发病与3年前的气温、风速和相对湿度具有显著相关性,且具有统计学意义(P<0.05);进入逐步回归方程的是二之气的风速,回归方程为Y=-260 768.31+113 844.99X2(2)。痢疾发病与当年的气温和风速具有显著相关性,且具有统计学意义(P<0.05);进入逐步回归方程的是初之气的风速,回归方程为Y=-175 561.65+89 055.08X2(1)。结论痢疾发病与3年前的气候变化具有相关性,“3年化疫”理论可用于痢疾发病的预测。
Objective To study the relativity between the incidence of dysentery in Beijing and the meteorological factors three years ago and the current year based on the theory of “3-year epidemic disease”. Methods The data of dysentery incidence and meteorological data of 35 years from 1970 to 2004 in Beijing were used for statistical analysis of correlation and regression to investigate the correlation between the incidence of dysentery and the meteorological factors three years ago and the current year. Results The incidence of dysentery was significantly correlated with air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity three years ago, and was statistically significant (P <0.05). For the stepwise regression equation, the wind speed of the second gas was Y = -260 768.31 +113 844.99X2 (2). The incidence of dysentery was significantly correlated with the temperature and wind speed of the year (P <0.05). The wind speed of the early gas entering the stepwise regression equation was Y = -175 561.65 + 89 055.08X2 (1 ). Conclusion The incidence of dysentery is related to the climate change three years ago. The “3-year-old epidemic” theory can be used to predict the incidence of dysentery.