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利用2006~2008年AREM模式预报降雨和漳河水库逐小时雨量站观测降雨及入库流量资料,对水库流域进行网格划分,建立了基于网格的空间分辨率分别为(0.25°×0.25°)和(0.5°×0.5°)的降雨预报统计降尺度模型,同时对降尺度模型了进行了模拟效果的检验,证明该降尺度模型的计算结果可以用于漳河水库洪水预报试验。从2009~2010年中选取了4次洪水过程,进行个例试验,试验结果表明,统计降尺度模型对洪水过程效率系数的改进效果不明显,但对减小预报洪峰流量相对误差有一定的效果,平均相对误差降低了10%左右,峰现时差也略有减小。
Based on the AREM model predicting rainfall from 2006 to 2008 and the hourly rainfall observing rainfall and inflow data of Zhanghe Reservoir, the grid watershed was divided into grids, and the grid-based spatial resolution was established as (0.25 ° × 0.25 ° ) And (0.5 ° × 0.5 °). At the same time, the simulation results of the downscaling model are tested. It is shown that the calculation results of this downscaling model can be used in the flood forecast experiment of Zhanghe Reservoir. Four flood processes were selected from 2009 to 2010 and a case study was conducted. The experimental results show that the statistical downscaling model has no obvious effect on the efficiency of flood process, but it has a certain effect on reducing the relative error of flood peak flow. , The average relative error decreased by about 10%, the peak difference is also slightly reduced.