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针对具有正态随机变量的多属性决策问题,提出一种决策分析方法.首先运用概率统计知识对具有正态随机变量的决策矩阵进行处理,得到每个方案的综合效用值,通过分析可知方案的综合效用值仍是正态随机变量;然后依据3σ原则确定每个方案的综合效用值所在的区间,并通过区间数的比较来建立两两方案之间比较的优势可能度矩阵;再后依据优势可能度矩阵,运用PROMETHEEⅡ方法得到方案的排序结果;最后通过一个算例说明了该方法的有效性和可行性.
Aiming at the problem of multi-attribute decision making with normal random variables, a decision analysis method is proposed.Firstly, the decision matrices with normal random variables are processed by using the knowledge of probability and statistics, and the comprehensive utility value of each solution is obtained. The comprehensive utility value is still a normal random variable; then the range of the comprehensive utility value of each solution is determined according to the 3σ principle, and the comparative advantage probability matrix between two programs is established through the comparison of the interval numbers; Probability matrix, using PROMETHEE Ⅱ method to get the results of the program; Finally, an example shows the effectiveness and feasibility of the method.