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■接下来的两年将是全球经济长期增长的开始,这个增长期将持续到2015年。在此期间,发展中国家将有可能实现“千年发展计划”■中国(8.8%)、俄罗斯(8.0%)、印度(6.0%)在2004年的强劲增长超出预料,达到30年来最高水平。2005年可能出现发展中国家经济复苏首次领先于高收入国家的情况■油价的持续走高将使2005的GDP下降大约0.5%。贫困国家受到的打击更大,因为能源进口在它们的进口总量中占据了相对高的份额。这样的经济局势将使得贸易震动变得更加敏感■如果不能通过软着陆来减缓中国过快的经济发展速度,将造成很严重的后果。世界银行预测,软着陆将使中国的发展速度从目前的8.8%下降到2006年的7.1%
■ The next two years will be the beginning of long-term global economic growth, which will last until 2015. During this period, developing countries will be able to achieve the MDGs. ■ China (8.8%), Russia (8.0%) and India (6.0%) recorded exceptional growth in 2004 exceeding their highest level in 30 years. 2005 may be the first time economic recovery in developing countries ahead of high-income countries situation ■ rising oil prices will make the 2005 GDP decreased by about 0.5%. Poor countries are hit harder because energy imports account for a relatively high share of their total imports. Such an economic situation will make trade shocks more sensitive. If China can not ease its excessive economic growth through a soft landing, it will have very serious consequences. The World Bank predicts that a soft landing will slow China’s growth from the current 8.8% to 7.1% in 2006