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以河北省蔬菜的季度生产价格为研究对象,以农户出售蔬菜时的实际价格与预期价格的波动为价格风险,通过AD检验、K-S检验以及卡方检验找到拟合价格风险的最优概率分布模型,最终利用风险价值法(VaR法)评估了河北省农户生产经营蔬菜所面临的价格风险。结果表明:虽然河北省蔬菜的价格总体呈上涨趋势,但也面临着不容忽视的价格下跌风险;河北省农户生产蔬菜的价格风险大小依次为芹菜>大白菜>西红柿>甘蓝>黄瓜>茄子。
Taking the quarterly production price of vegetable in Hebei Province as the research object, the fluctuation of the actual price and the expected price when the farmers sell vegetables is the price risk. The optimal probability distribution model fitting the price risk is found through AD test, KS test and chi-square test Finally, the method of VaR (VaR) was used to evaluate the price risk faced by farmer households in producing and operating vegetables in Hebei Province. The results showed that although the price of vegetables in Hebei Province generally showed an upward trend, it was also faced with the risk of price drop which could not be ignored. The price risk of vegetables produced by Hebei farmers was celery> Chinese cabbage> tomato> cabbage> cucumber> eggplant.