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针对现有的天然气长输管道可靠性分析方法主要依赖于专家意见,当其意见不一致或主观性较强时,将影响对管道事件概率估算准确性的问题,描述了基于D-S证据理论的信度模型的建立步骤。利用该模型对天然气管道进行了可靠性分析,将多位专家对同一评判对象不一致的判断,根据其可信度进行了处理。该模型解决了由于专家专业知识和经验的片面性以及判决的主观性造成的天然气管道可靠性分析偏差的问题,极大地提高了分析结果的可靠性。但由于D-S证据理论尚存在一些不足,因此必须建立统一的标准使得模糊语言与模糊数保持统一性和一致性,以进一步提高管道可靠性分析的准确性。
Aiming at the existing natural gas long-distance pipeline reliability analysis methods mainly depend on expert opinion, when the opinions are inconsistent or subjective, it will affect the accuracy of pipeline event probability estimation, and the reliability based on DS evidence theory Model building steps. The model is used to analyze the reliability of natural gas pipeline, and the discrepancy of many experts on the same object is judged based on its credibility. This model solves the problem of deviations of natural gas pipeline reliability analysis caused by the one-sidedness of experts’ expertise and experience and the subjective judgment, which greatly improves the reliability of the analysis results. However, due to some deficiencies in D-S evidence theory, it is necessary to establish a unified standard so that the consistency and consistency of fuzzy languages and fuzzy numbers can be improved so as to further improve the accuracy of pipeline reliability analysis.