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为了评价随机地震作用下饱和砂土孔隙水压力发展的概率,本文介绍了一种新的概率模型。模型中考虑了砂土动力特性的非线性、液化抗力的不确定性以及孔压发展的非线性,计算了每一荷载循环终了时的孔压累积概率分布函数,当孔压比等于1时,直接从累积概率分布函数中可得出液化概率。应用本方法,对日本新泻地震时的三个典型场地进行了分析,计算结果和现场震害良好一致,证实了本文方法的适用性。
In order to evaluate the probability of development of pore water pressure in saturated sand under random earthquakes, this paper introduces a new probability model. The model considers the nonlinearity of sand dynamics, the uncertainty of liquefaction resistance, and the nonlinearity of pore pressure development. The cumulative pore pressure cumulative distribution function at the end of each load cycle is calculated. When the pore pressure ratio is equal to 1, The liquefaction probability can be directly derived from the cumulative probability distribution function. This method was used to analyze the three typical sites during the earthquake in Niigata, Japan. The calculation results are in good agreement with the site earthquake damage, confirming the applicability of this method.