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本文针对河北省目前的经济走势,在总结现有宏观预警方法的基础上,提出了采用向量自回归模型(VAR)构建河北宏观经济预警体统的建议,以宏观经济的运行目标为依据,选择了河北省GDP、居民消费价格指数(CPI)和人均现金收入(PCCI)三项指标来构建河北省的VAR宏观经济预警系统,结果表明物价上涨对经济增长有抑制的作用,人均收入对经济增长则有正向拉动作用,河北省宏观经济的短期波动会向长期均衡收敛。
In this paper, based on the current economic trend in Hebei Province, based on the summary of the existing macroeconomic early warning methods, this paper puts forward the suggestion of using the vector autoregressive model (VAR) to build Hebei’s macroeconomic warning system. Based on the macroeconomic objectives of operation, Hebei province GDP, the consumer price index (CPI) and the per capita cash income (PCCI) three indicators to build Hebei Province, VAR macroeconomic early warning system, the results show that price increases have an inhibitory effect on economic growth, per capita income on economic growth A positive pull, Hebei Province, macroeconomic short-term fluctuations will converge to long-term equilibrium.