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目的预测流行季节流感的优势毒株,为疫情研判和防控提供依据。方法根据2009-2013年浙江省流感监测样本的检测结果,按上下半年对各年流感优势毒株亚型排列,将流感各亚型进行状态划分,并按时间顺序建立状态变化列表,计算各亚型间的一步状态概率转移矩阵,利用状态转移概率矩阵预测下一流行季节各流感亚型成为优势毒株概率。结果浙江省流感监测样本阳性检出率呈上下半年双峰分布,且每一个阳性检出峰中流感优势毒株类型单一明显,根据一步状态概率转移矩阵,2013年下半年流感优势毒株为A(H3N2)、甲型H1N1、B型的概率分别为0、0、100%。结论应结合预测结果,流感样病例、分子实验室、药敏监测等综合判断,同时应根据实际监测结果调整状态概率转移矩阵。
Objective To predict the predominant strains of seasonal influenza and provide evidence for the prevention and control of the epidemic. Methods According to the detection results of influenza surveillance samples in Zhejiang Province from 2009 to 2013, the subtypes of influenza strains were arranged in each year in the first half and second half of the year. The subtypes of influenza were divided into different subtypes, and the state change list was established in chronological order. Type state transition probability matrix, the state transition probability matrix is used to predict the probability of each influenza subtype in the next epidemic season to be the dominant strain. Results The positive detection rate of influenza surveillance samples in Zhejiang Province showed a bimodal distribution in the first half of the second half of the year and a single distinct predominant strain of influenza was found in each positive detection peak. According to the one-step state probability transfer matrix, the dominant influenza strains in the second half of 2013 were A (H3N2), H1N1, B-type probability of 0, 0, 100%. Conclusions The predictions, influenza-like cases, molecular laboratories and drug susceptibility monitoring should be combined with the judgment. At the same time, the state transition probability matrix should be adjusted according to the actual monitoring results.