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建立的数学模型为＾ｙ＝４１２．７－３．０２ｘ１－７．０４ｘ２＋１５．１ｘ３＋１５．２１ｘ１ｘ２＋１１．４９ｘ１ｘ３－１４．７４ｘ２ｘ３－０．３９ｘ１２＋３．７２ｘ２２－２１．５９ｘ３２，回归分析达到极显著水平（Ｒ＝０．９１１４，α＝０．０１），模型预测产量与实际吻合较好。根据对产量函数模型的计算机模拟寻优结果，结合灌区农业生产实际，得出覆膜穴播小麦获得单产６３７５ｋｇ／ｈｍ２以上的技术方案为：施纯氮１８８．４～２３８．４ｋｇ／ｈｍ２，施Ｐ２Ｏ５８９～１３７．３ｋｇ／ｈｍ２，每穴播种粒数为１２～１４粒。其９５％的置信域为：ｙａ＝４３１．４±３４．５。
The mathematical model was established as follows: y = 412.7-3.02x1-7.04x2 + 15.1x3 + 15.21x1x2 + 11.49x1x3-14.74x2x3-0.39x12 + 3.72x22-21.59x32, and the regression analysis reached an extremely significant level (R = 0 .9114, α = 0.01), the predicted yield of the model is in good agreement with the actual. According to the results of computer simulation of yield function model and the practice of agricultural production in irrigated area, the technical scheme of yielding wheat with 6375kg / hm2 yield was obtained: 188.4 ~ 238.4kg / hm2 of pure nitrogen applied, P2O589 ~ 137.3kg / hm2, sowing seeds per hole is 12 ~ 14 grains. Its 95% confidence domain is: ya = 431.4 ± 34.5.