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在财政分权背景下,中国各地方政府债务的规模不断增加,因此研究政府债务规模对经济增长的影响具有重要的现实意义。该文首先分析了地方债务影响经济增长的机制,随后运用中国大陆30个省(市)2003-2013年的面板数据进行实证分析,研究发现:线性模型中,在控制了一系列变量的条件下,地方政府债务确实促进了经济增长;非线性模型中,二者存在着倒U型关系,但债务的二次项在统计上并不显著。同时还发现,财政分权与地方政府债务的结合效应可能不利于经济增长。稳健性检验表明上述结论具有较强的可靠性,随后的分债务规模和分区域回归仍然保持结论的稳健性,但高债务地区和中西部地区的债务增长效应更显著。
Under the background of fiscal decentralization, the scale of the debts of various local governments in China is constantly increasing. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the impact of government debt scale on economic growth. This paper first analyzes the mechanism of local debt impacting on economic growth, and then uses the panel data of 30 provinces (cities) in China from 2003 to 2013 for empirical analysis. The study finds that in a linear model, under the control of a series of variables , While local government debt did promote economic growth. In the nonlinear model, there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship, but the debt second-order term is not statistically significant. At the same time, it is also found that the combined effect of fiscal decentralization and local government debt may not be conducive to economic growth. Robustness tests show that the above conclusions are highly reliable. The subsequent sub-debt scale and subregional regression still maintain the robustness of the conclusions, but the debt growth effect is more pronounced in the high-debt areas and the mid-west areas.