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目的探索动态灰色模型G M(1,1)在甲型肝炎发病率定量宏观评估中的合理性与应用条件。方法首先,收集1 990~201 3年葫芦岛市24年甲型肝炎发病率资料,然后利用1990~2007年发病率建立动态灰色GM(1,1)模型选择最优阈值,最后对2008~2013年发病率进行外推预测。结果最优阈值为15,当利用动态灰色模型GM(1,1)时,甲型肝炎模型等级为2级。结论动态模型基本拟合了葫芦岛市甲型肝炎的发病变化,效果优于非动态模型。
Objective To explore the rationality and application conditions of the dynamic gray model G M (1,1) in quantitative macroeconomic assessment of hepatitis A incidence. Methods Firstly, the data of incidence of hepatitis A in 24 years from 1994 to 201 in Huludao City were collected. Then the dynamic gray GM (1,1) model was established by using the incidence of 1990-2007 to select the optimal threshold. Finally, Annual incidence of extrapolation prediction. The optimal threshold value was 15, and the level of hepatitis A model was 2 when the dynamic gray model GM (1,1) was used. Conclusion The dynamic model basically fits the incidence of hepatitis A in Huludao City, which is better than the non-dynamic model.