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人文地理学的发展历史表明,探究未来是当今人文地理学研究的主要趋向,是现代人文地理学区别于古代和近代人文地理学的一个重要特征。在区域、国土、居民点等规划中预测未来是不可缺少的重要内容。然而,由于人文地理现象构成复杂,联系错综,较难把握事物的发展变化趋向,因而预测未来比追溯过去和描述现状要困难许多倍。在预测过程中往往会出现判断失误或完全错误,出现这种现象的原因在于目前预测尚无正确的理论和方法作为指导。本文仅就预测的依据、限制性因素、主要方法及建立时效性指标体系等方面进行探讨。
The history of the development of human geography shows that to explore the future is the main tendency of today’s research in human geography and is an important feature of modern human geography that distinguishes it from ancient and modern human geography. In the region, land, settlements and other planning projections future is an indispensable important content. However, as the human geography phenomenon is complicated and inaccessible, it is difficult to grasp the trend of the development of things. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the future more than to trace the past and describe the status quo. The reason for this phenomenon is that there are often no correct theories and methods in the forecast as guidance. This article only discusses the basis of prediction, the limiting factors, the main methods and the establishment of timeliness index system.