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“诱发前震”现象在区域地震活动中较普遍,据此提出A-F-B图象预报方法,以区域大震后短时间内发生的小震为预报因子,判断以后大震的位置并推测其震级与时间。为了检验该方法的实用性,统计了我国西南地区1970—1983年和华北地区1966—1984年的地震资料,对其预测效能做了统计评价。评分采用W值与R值。其中:W=1-(漏报率+虚报率);R=报对地震占有面积/应预报地震占有面积-预报区占有面积/研究区总面积。结果为W与R值都大于0.5,波动在0.5～0.8之间;并计算出各种不同预报参量的频数概率分布,给出了单次预报在取不同空间与时间范围的信度。
The phenomenon of “induced foreshock” is common in regional seismicity. Based on this, a method of AFB image prediction is proposed. Taking the occurrence of small earthquakes as a predictor in a short period of time after a large earthquake, the location of future large earthquakes is judged and the magnitude and time of the earthquake are estimated . In order to test the practicability of the method, the seismic data from 1970 to 1983 in Southwest China and 1966 to 1984 in North China were calculated, and the statistical evaluation of the prediction efficiency was made. Scoring using W value and R value. Where: W = 1- (false negative rate + false alarm rate); R = reported area occupied by the earthquake / area occupied by the earthquake to be predicted - occupied area of the forecast area / total area of the study area. The results show that the W and R values are both greater than 0.5 and the fluctuations are between 0.5 and 0.8. The frequency probability distributions of different forecasting parameters are calculated, and the reliability of single forecasting in different space and time ranges is given.