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目前新兴经济体所面临的资本流方向逆转趋势的程度可能比普遍认为的更严重,有可能严重到触发危机目前,全球新兴世界呈现出各种经济脆弱性增加的症候。没有两次金融危机是一样的,但所有金融危机都有一些相似的症状:经济增长和出口大幅放缓,资产价格繁荣退烧,经常项目和财政赤字增加,杠杆升高,资本流入趋势彻底反转,等等。如今,各新兴经济体以不同的程度呈现出所有这些症状。
At present, the trend of reversal of capital flow in emerging economies may be more serious than what is generally believed and may be serious enough to trigger the crisis. At present, the global emerging world presents various symptoms of increased economic vulnerability. No two financial crises are the same, but all the financial crises have some similar symptoms: a sharp slowdown in economic growth and exports; a boom-bust fever in asset prices; an increase in current account and fiscal deficits; a rise in leverage; a complete reversal of capital inflow trends ,and many more. Today, all emerging economies present all of these symptoms to varying degrees.