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2003年日本经济继续保持复苏势头,内外两面都呈现出积极因素,经济形势进一步好转。但基础面改善不够彻底,结构调整压力依然很大,当前增长水平尚未完全摆脱泡沫经济影响,还不能说日本经济开始走出“10年低迷”。带动日本经济复苏的主要动力依然是出口。2002年和2003年日本对美国出口基本持平,出口增量主要来自对亚洲和中国出口部分。在出口带动下,产业景气链开始向内需部门延伸。日本第3季度实质GDP增长率对设备投资依存度达到0.5%,超过对净出口0.2%的依存度。根据日本中央银行设备投资调查,2003年度日本全产业设备投资预期增长4.4%,其中制造业部门增长11.1%。日本设备投资继2000年持续下降后首次出现增长,显示出口效应开始传递到更多宏观经济部门,经济复苏基础更趋稳固。日本企业竞争力进入新一轮上升期大银行不良债权处理已经“看到光明”小泉内阁结构改革路线得以继续外部需求中心开始“脱美入亚”日本经济连续2年保持增长态势,对今后日本经济乐观看法增多。此次日本经济复苏,
In 2003, the Japanese economy continued to maintain the momentum of recovery, with positive factors on both the inside and outside, and the economic situation improved further. However, the improvement of the fundamentals is not complete enough and the structural adjustment pressure is still very great. At the current level of growth, the bubble economy has yet to fully get rid of the bubble economy. We can not say that the Japanese economy has begun to get out of its “10-year downturn.” The main driving force behind Japan’s economic recovery is still exports. In 2002 and 2003, Japan’s exports to the United States were basically the same. The increase in exports mainly came from exports to Asia and China. Driven by exports, the industrial boom chain has begun to extend its domestic demand sector. Japan’s Q3 real GDP growth rate of equipment investment dependence reached 0.5%, exceeding the net export of 0.2% dependence. According to the Japan Central Bank Equipment Investment Survey, total industrial equipment investment in Japan is expected to increase by 4.4% in 2003, of which the manufacturing sector increased by 11.1%. Japanese equipment investment saw its first growth since its continued decline in 2000, showing that the export effect began to be transferred to more macroeconomic sectors and the foundation for economic recovery was firmer. Japan’s competitiveness into a new round of rising bank non-performing loans have been “to see the light ” Koizumi cabinet structure reform to continue the external demand center “off the United States into Asia ” Japan’s economy for 2 consecutive years to maintain growth Japan optimistic about the economy in the future. The Japanese economic recovery,