针对车辆器材库存需求量预测存在的影响因素考虑不全和预测精度不高的问题,分析了影响库存需求量的主要因素及各变量之间的因果关系,建立了车辆器材库存需求量预测系统动力学模型,并进行了实例验证。结果表明:该模型考虑因素齐全,预测结果更接近实际,具有一定的参考和应用价值,为科学预测车辆器材库存需求量提供了新方法。 Aiming at the problem of insufficient consideration of vehicle stock inventory demand and low prediction accuracy, the paper analyzes the main factors that affect the stock demand and the causal relationship among the variables, and establishes the system dynamics of vehicle stock inventory demand forecasting Model, and has carried on the example verification. The results show that the model has many considerations and the prediction results are more realistic. It has some reference and application value, which provides a new method for scientifically forecasting the inventory of vehicle equipment.