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一、房地产市场周期理论及某研究背景市场经济周期理论在西方国家已有几十年研究史,近年来由于房地产市场受经济周期波动影响变化加剧,引起不少学者的关注.Leinberger(1993)指出,传统观点认为影响房地产业最重要的因素一是区位、二是区位、第三还是区位有失公正,因为市场周期决定预期回报率高低,从而是房地产投资决策的首要因素,区位条件则是第二位要素[1].Pyhrr(1989)等人描述了14种市场周期类型;Roulac在1995年估价师协会的年会上归纳了13种市场周期类型;Barras(1994)则指出几种经济要素周期的持续相互作用,会引起房地产市场周期的较大波动.Charles RooS指出在不动产投资中应考虑八种要素:(1)宏观经济趋势分析;(2)判断人口增长引起物业社会需求的变动;(3)评价现有物业消费潜力;(4)确定物业供应增长潜力;(5)确定技术进步对该物业生产与消费的影响;(6)分析该物业投资比重;(7)了解政府或其他开发商的开发动机;(8)掌握该物业开发与建设的详细规划及其实施步骤.
First, the real estate market cycle theory and a research background Market economic cycle theory in Western countries have decades of research history, due to the real estate market in recent years by the volatility of the economy changes intensified, attracted a lot of scholars attention.Leinberger (1993) pointed out , The traditional view that the most important factor affecting the real estate industry is the location, the second is the location, the third or the location is unfair, because the market cycle determines the expected return rate, which is the primary factor in real estate investment decisions, the location conditions are Two elements [1] .Pyhrr (1989) et al. Described 14 types of market cycles; Roulac summarized 13 types of market cycles at the 1995 Association of Valuators; and Barras (1994) pointed out that several economic elements Cycle of sustained interaction, will lead to greater volatility in the real estate market cycle.Charles RooS pointed out that in real estate investment should consider eight elements: (1) macroeconomic trends analysis; (2) to determine the population growth caused by changes in the needs of the property society; (3) to evaluate the potential consumption of existing properties; (4) to determine the growth potential of property supply; (5) to determine the impact of technological progress on the production and consumption of the property; (6) to analyze The proportion of investment property; (7) understand open government or other engine developers; (8) a detailed master plan of the property development and construction of its implementation steps.