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人民币对美元的持续升值给中国造船业带来了很大的负面影响。影响造船业利润的主要因素有人民币升值幅度、国外原材料及配套设备采购在总成本中所占的比例、升值前船东的付款比例、国内外原材料及配套设备的采购成本变动幅度等。综合考虑上述各种因素,建立了动态的利润模型,分析人民币升值对造船业的影响途径和影响程度,还进行了各个因素的敏感性分析,提出相应的对策建议。
The continuous appreciation of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar has had a great negative impact on China’s shipbuilding industry. The main factors influencing the shipbuilding industry profit are the appreciation of RMB, the proportion of procurement of raw materials and ancillary equipment abroad in the total cost, the payment proportion of the shipowners before the appreciation, the fluctuation of purchase cost of raw materials and ancillary equipment both at home and abroad. Considering all these factors, a dynamic profit model is established to analyze the ways and impacts of RMB revaluation on the shipbuilding industry. The sensitivity analysis of each factor is also made and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.