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目的:对龙门县2011-2013发热呼吸道症状监测在甲型H1N1流感大流行中的早期预警效果进行分析与研究。方法:资料选自2011-2013年龙门县流感样病例的监测数据和非典预警相关数据,在对其进行分析的同时,对2013年流感样病例的监测数据实施有机拟合,对比分析两种监测方法在甲型H1N1流感大流行中的早期预警效果。结果:在出现第1例输入性的病例之前的1个月,流感样病例的监测数据就呈现上涨趋势。而在非典监测早期预警系统中,发热呼吸道患者的就诊率明显高于2011年及2012年的同期水平,3年间比较,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。此外,2013年的流感疫情和甲型H1N1流感在不同阶段的流行趋势保持相对一致性。结论:2013年两个不同监测系统的预警信号与甲型H1N1流感的疫情基本吻合,平均回归法对甲型H1N1流感的暴发预警明显优于控制图法。
OBJECTIVE: To analyze and study the early warning effect of the 2011-2013 febrile respiratory symptoms monitoring in the H1N1 influenza pandemic in Longmen County. Methods: The data were selected from the monitoring data of SARS cases and SARS-related data from 2011 to 2013 in Longmen County. While analyzing the data, the monitoring data of influenza-like cases in 2013 were organically fitted, and the results of two kinds of surveillance Method in early warning of Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. Results: In the first month before the first imported case, the monitoring data of influenza-like cases showed an upward trend. In the early warning system of SARS surveillance, the prevalence of fever respiratory patients was significantly higher than that of 2011 and 2012, and the difference was statistically significant (P <0.05) in three years. In addition, the prevalence of influenza outbreaks and Influenza A (H1N1) in 2013 remained relatively consistent at different stages of the epidemic. Conclusion: The early warning signals of two different monitoring systems in 2013 basically agree with the epidemic of H1N1 influenza. The average regression method is better than the control chart in predicting the outbreak of influenza A (H1N1).