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目的研究山东省济宁市气象因素对流行性腮腺炎发病的影响,为流行性腮腺炎防控提供理论依据。方法收集济宁市2011年1月1日到2013年12月31日流行性腮腺炎疾病日监测数据及同期逐日气象数据,结合数据特征,通过构建分布滞后非线性模型,在控制长期趋势、季节趋势的基础上研究气象因素对流行性腮腺炎发病的影响。结果 2011—2013年济宁市共报告流行性腮腺炎7 309例,男性发病例数(5 011例)多于女性(2 298例),性别比为2.18∶1;4~15岁儿童最多,占74.98%。以气温15.2℃为参照,日平均气温为-8.8℃、滞后0 d时RR值最高,为1.09(95%CI:0.94~1.27);以相对湿度75%为参照,日平均相对湿度为100%、滞后0 d时RR值最高,为1.06(95%CI:1.01~1.13)。以气温15.2℃为参照,日平均气温达到最高(32℃)时,滞后30 d的总体效应值(RR)为0.28(95%CI:0.14~0.53);以相对湿度75%为参照,日平均相对湿度达到最高(100%)时,滞后30 d的RR值为2.80(95%CI:1.66~4.71),且均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论气象因素对流行性腮腺炎的影响呈非线性,应密切监测气象因素,做好防控工作。
Objective To study the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps in Jining, Shandong Province and to provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of mumps. Methods From January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2013, the monitoring data of mumps and the daily meteorological data of the same period were collected. According to the characteristics of the data, a nonlinear model of distributed lag was established to measure long-term trend, seasonal trend Based on the study of the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps. Results A total of 7 309 mumps cases were reported in Jining from 2011 to 2013, with more male cases (5 011 cases) than female (2 298 cases) cases and a sex ratio of 2.18:1. Most children aged 4-15 years old accounted for 74.98%. The average daily temperature was -8.8 ℃ and the highest RR was 1.09 (95% CI: 0.94-1.27) with a relative humidity of 75% as the reference. The average relative humidity was 100% , And the highest RR value was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01-1.13) at lag 0 d. When the average daily temperature reached the highest (32 ℃), the total effect (RR) was 0.28 (95% CI: 0.14 ~ 0.53) when the average daily temperature reached 32 ℃ with a relative humidity of 15% The RR at lag time of 30 days was 2.80 (95% CI: 1.66-4.71) with the highest relative humidity (100%), both of which were statistically significant (P <0.05). Conclusion The impact of meteorological factors on mumps is nonlinear. Meteorological factors should be closely monitored to prevent and control multivitamins.