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目的建立人类免疫缺陷病毒/艾滋病(HIV/AIDS)国家模型,探索基于案例的动态、计算机可视化的HIV/AIDS教育方法。方法根据撒哈拉以南非洲国家的典型数据建立参考模型。根据T21国家模型的基本设计理念,采用系统动力学方法建立HIV/AIDS国家模型,并结合T21国家模型进行人口、社会、经济的系统分析。结果 HIV/AIDS国家模型清晰地模拟了艾滋病50年的传播趋势及其对国家人口、经济和社会的影响。结论 HIV/AIDS国家模型能够直观地反映艾滋病对人口、社会、经济发展的危害,有助于艾滋病健康教育的推进。
Objective To establish a national model of human immunodeficiency virus / AIDS and to explore case-based dynamic, computer-based HIV / AIDS education methods. Methods Based on the typical data of sub-Saharan African countries, a reference model was established. According to the basic design concept of T21 national model, the national dynamics model of HIV / AIDS was established by using system dynamics method, and the population, society and economy were systematically analyzed with T21 national model. Results The HIV / AIDS national model clearly simulated 50 years of HIV transmission trends and their impact on the country’s population, economy and society. Conclusion The HIV / AIDS national model can intuitively reflect the harm of HIV / AIDS to population, society and economy and contribute to the advancement of HIV / AIDS health education.