本文将广东省海门测站的多年台风风暴潮资料分为西北型、混合型两大类,分别经过一、二、三元回归分析比较,表明该站台风风暴潮与气压示度、风应力和台风移速的相关性。在变量因子的取值方法上,采用加权法,使之所建立的极值预报公式更客观,并适用各种路经的台风所引起风暴潮的估算,经预报检验效果良好。 This paper divides the data of typhoon storm surge over the years in Haimen Station of Guangdong Province into two types: northwest type and mixed type. After one, two and three yuan regression analysis and comparison respectively, it shows that typhoon storm surge and pressure indicator, wind stress and Typhoon moving speed correlation. In the method of variable factor, weighted method is adopted to make the extreme value prediction formula established more objectively, and the storm surge caused by typhoon of various path is estimated, and the forecast result is good.