电影中的明日世界

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  A woman lies on what looks like a tanning[把皮肤晒黑] bed for a quick health examination. Traces of cancer are found—and removed immediately.
  This is one of the futuristic[未来派的] scenes we see in the science-fiction film Elysium. Have you ever considered that the fiction seen on the screen might become fact 10 or 20 years from now?
  Before you reject[拒绝] this idea, just consider how science-fiction films from the recent past have predicted[预测] how we live and work today.
  Google Glass, the driverless car and robots all had roots in films such as Blade Runner (1982), Back to the Future (1989) and Total Recall (1990). Engineers and designers at Google, Apple and elsewhere will tell you that these films did feed their imaginations[想象力].
  “You see so many dreamers today because there are so many ideas floating on social media.” says Justin Maguire, lead designer for Frog Design. “There’s almost nothing we can’t build today.”
  The way tech companies now develop products has been inspired[赋予灵感], in part, by sci-fi films of the past. Who knows? Films like Elysium, Ender’s Game, and Interstellar might offer a look into the next few decades, according to experts in tech and sci-fi.
  “I grew up obsessed[迷住] with Star Trek, so naturally when I bought my first smartphone I immediately set the background to look like a tricorder注1,” says Matt Carver, 30, senior technologist[技术专家] at Big Spaceship, a creativedesign agency[机构] in Brooklyn, N.Y.
  Sci-fi movies from the previous[早先的] four decades offer a glimpse[一瞥] of the future worlds of robots, health care, travel and warfare[战争]. For instance, experts now predict that within ten years, general-purpose[多用途的] robots will perform household chores[家务杂事] while consumers[消费者] are at work; or serve as butlers[男管家] at cocktail parties.
  The Future? Look Around
  At a faster pace than ever, the world as we know it has been completely changed by technology. Just look inside a consumerelectronics[消费性电子产品] store, on the road, inside a hospital—or up in the sky, for that matter[就此而言].
  Flying cars are the way to get around Los Angeles in Blade Runner. In the real world today, Terrafugia’s flying car is expected to hit the market in 2027.
  Closer to Earth, self-driving cars took to the roads in Total Recall. Now, they’re allowed to be tested in several US states as driverless Google cars. The genesis[起源] of Google Glass has taken form in movies ranging from[从……到……] Ghostbusters(1984) and Terminator (1984) to RoboCop (1987) and They Live (1988).   Gaining Inspiration
  Though predicting the future is often seen as pointless and impossible, sci-fi experts say it’s really not that difficult. And often, you need look no further than the “based upon a story” movie credit注2.
  “The best predictive movies are based on wellthought-out books or short fiction by some of the best minds of science fiction,” says sci-fi writer Frank Catalano, pointing to Philip K. Dick注3, whose stories inspired Blade Runner, Minority Report, Total Recall and The Adjustment Bureau.
  The best movie in predicting the future? Based on science-fiction experts, and a poll[投票] conducted[组织并实施] in Popular Mechanics, it’s Gattaca (1997), which explored the scientific and moral[道德上的] tug-of-war when it comes to genetic profiling[遗传识别].
  “Some things are dead-on[完全正确的],” says Lynda Weinman, who worked on special effects for Return of the Jedi (1983) and Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home(1986), among other movies. “Look at a tricorder in Star Trek; it reminds me of an iPad. Then, there’s the video phone in so many movies, which we have with smartphones.”
  As a visual-effects[视觉特效] supervisor[主管人] on the first Star Wars trilogy[三部曲] and Jurassic Park, Phil Tippett jokingly admits, “I’m not much of a futurist[未来主义者].”
  “It’s a big turn from doing visual effects to anticipating[预见] what will happen,” says Tippett, a two-time Academy Award winner. “It often comes down to (the imagination of) the writer, director and stage designers.”
  一个女人躺在一台形似日光浴床的仪器上接受快速体检,发现有癌症迹象,病灶随即被祛除。
  这是我们在科幻电影《极乐空间》里看到的未来场景之一。然而,你是否想过,我们现在在屏幕上看到的虚构情节,可能会在10年或20年后成为现实?
  在拒绝这种设想之前,不妨先想一下不久之前的科幻电影对我们今天的生活和工作方式做出了怎样的预测吧。
  在《银翼杀手》(1982年)、《回到未来》(1989年)和《全面回忆》(1990年)等电影中,我们可以发现谷歌眼镜、无人驾驶汽车和机器人的源头。谷歌、苹果和其他企业的工程师和设计师们会告诉你,这些电影的确滋养了他们的想象力。
  “青蛙设计”首席设计师贾斯汀·马奎尔说:“今天你能看到无数的梦想家,因为社交媒体上到处都是点子。几乎没有什么是我们现在建造不了的。”
  如今的高科技公司开发产品,有一部分灵感来自于过去的科幻电影。谁说得准呢?根据科技和科幻领域专家的看法,《极乐世界》、《安德的游戏》和《星际穿越》等电影,可能让我们提前窥见几十年后的未来。
  纽约布鲁克林创意设计机构“大飞船”的资深技术专家,现年30岁的马特·卡佛说:“我从小就迷恋《星际迷航》,所以在买了第一台智能手机后,我立刻设置了背景图片,让它看起来就像一部三录仪。”
  过去四十年来的科幻电影让人们得以瞥见未来世界中的机器人、医疗、出行和战争场景。举个例子,现在就有专家做出预测:在未来十年内,通用机器人将在消费者办公期间承担家务活,或者在鸡尾酒会上承担管家工作。
  未来?——就在身边
  科技已经以超越历史上任何时期的速度,完全改变了我们所熟知的这个世界。只要看看消费电子店、街上、医院——或者抬头看看天空,立刻就能明白这一点。
  在《银翼杀手》中,会飞的汽车是穿梭洛杉矶的交通工具。而在今天的现实世界中,美国特拉弗吉亚公司的飞行汽车预计在2027年投放市场。
  再来看看离地面更近的科技。在电影《全面回忆》中,奔驰在路上的是自动驾驶汽车。今天,美国已经允许在其中几个州测试谷歌无人驾驶汽车。在《捉鬼敢死队》(1984年)、《终结者》(1984年)、《机械战警》(1987年)和《极度空间》(1988年)等电影中,我们已经能看到谷歌眼镜的雏形。
  灵感之源
  虽然预测未来往往被视为毫无意义、不可能实现的事,但科幻专家说,这事其实并没有那么难。你往往只需要看看“根据某故事改编”的电影谢幕名单就够了。
  “最好的预测未来的电影都是基于一些最优秀的科幻作家经过深刻构思的书或者短篇小说改编而成。”科幻作家弗兰克·卡塔拉诺说,并特别指出菲利普·K.迪克——他的故事是电影《银翼杀手》、《少数派报告》、《全面回忆》和《命运规划局》的灵感来源。
  那么,预测未来的最佳电影是哪一部呢?根据科幻小说专家的意见以及(美国)《大众机械》杂志所进行的一项调查显示,这一桂冠落在电影《千钧一发》(1997年)上。该片探讨了涉及基因图谱的科学与伦理的拉锯战。
  曾参与《星球大战:绝地大反击》(1983年)、《星际迷航4:抢救未来》(1986年)等电影特效制作的琳达·温曼说:“科幻电影对有些东西的预见可谓准确无误。看看《星际迷航》里的三录仪,它让我想到了iPad。此外,很多电影里都出现过可视电话,我们今天的智能手机就有这种功能。”
  曾任最早的《星球大战》三部曲及《侏罗纪公园》视觉特效总监的菲尔·蒂皮特开玩笑地承认道:“我其实不算是未来主义者。”
  “从做视觉效果到预测未来,是截然不同的两码事。”这位两届奥斯卡奖得主说。“最终往往还是取决于作家、导演和舞台设计师(的想象力)。”
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