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气候变化对水文设计和水系统管理的影响是未来水文学家和水资源管理者将面临的重大挑战之一。当前许多水资源管理者所依赖的是历史水文数据与自适应性实时调度,但没有考虑气候变化对水文系统及调度规则的影响。以往的研究包括了不同气候变化情景下水资源系统的风险性、可靠性和稳定性之类的问题,但从未涉及水资源管理决策者在气候变化对管理影响方面的偏好问题。探讨了气候变化对水资源的影响及模糊集理论在水系统气候变化敏感性管理方面的适用性。此外,还例证了方法的适用性,即运用模糊集理论描述决策者在接受或排斥气候变化影响的程度及方向时的倾向性。
The impact of climate change on hydrological design and the management of water systems is one of the major challenges that future hydrologists and water managers will face. Many current water managers rely on historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time scheduling, but do not consider the impact of climate change on hydrological systems and scheduling rules. Previous studies have included issues such as the risks, reliability and stability of water resource systems in different climate change scenarios but have never addressed the preference of water resource management policymakers for the impact of climate change on management. Discusses the impact of climate change on water resources and the applicability of fuzzy set theory in the management of climate change sensitivity in water systems. In addition, the applicability of the method is also illustrated by using fuzzy set theory to describe the tendencies of decision makers in accepting or excluding the extent and direction of the impacts of climate change.