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目的探讨南昌市2008—2011年梅毒的发病趋势,并进行短期预测,为科学制定梅毒防控措施,合理配置防控资源提供参考。方法根据2008—2011年梅毒报告发病率数据,拟合灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型,进行回代预测、拟合精度评价和外推预测。结果建立的预测模型为:Y t=-417.640 1 e-0.0534(t-1)+438.380 1,模型的回代拟合精度指标后验差比值C为0.107 6,小误差概率P为100%,拟合精度等级达最好级别。利用建立的模型预测2012—2014年梅毒的报告发病率分别达18.502 2/10万、17.540 2/10万、16.628 1/10万。结论 GM(1,1)模型拟合梅毒的发病率数据结果理想,可用于梅毒发病率的短期预测。
Objective To investigate the incidence of syphilis in Nanchang from 2008 to 2011 and make short-term prediction to provide a reference for scientific prevention and control of syphilis and rational allocation of resources for prevention and control. Methods Based on the incidence data of syphilis reported from 2008 to 2011, the GM (1,1) prediction model of gray system was fitted and the predictions of back-generation, fitting accuracy and extrapolation were carried out. Results The prediction model was established as follows: Y t = -417.640 1 e-0.0534 (t-1) +438.380 1. The posteriori error rate C was 0.107 6 and the small error probability P was 100% Fitting level of accuracy of the best level. Using the established model to predict 2012-2014 syphilis reported incidence rates were 18.502 2/10 million, 17.540 2/10 million, 16.628 1/100 million. Conclusion The GM (1,1) model fit the incidence of syphilis data results are ideal, can be used for short-term prediction of the incidence of syphilis.