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目的联合应用时间序列ARIMA模型以及控制图原理对传染病监测数据进行分析,探讨切实可行的传染病预警模式,实现对传染病的流行趋势进行预测,以期指导传染病的预防控制工作。方法收集筛选传染病的历史数据,利用时间序列ARIMA模型以及控制图原理,绘制控制图曲线,计算预警界值,预测疾病的流行趋势。结果利用建立的ARIMA模型初步确定疾病的年发病趋势后,可进一步根据绘制的控制图来确定实际疫情的流行趋势,综合传染病的严重性、危害性及可控制性及时作出反应。结论ARIMA模型与控制图法的联合应用,预警精度较高,是较好的传染病疫情预警模式。
Objective To analyze the monitoring data of infectious diseases by combining the time series ARIMA model and control chart principle, discuss the practical warning patterns of infectious diseases and predict the epidemic trend of infectious diseases so as to guide the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Methods The historical data of infectious diseases were screened, and the time series ARIMA model and control chart principle were used to draw the control chart curves, calculate the precautionary cutoff value and predict the epidemic trend of the disease. Results The established ARIMA model was used to determine the annual incidence trend of the disease. The epidemic trend of the actual epidemic could be further determined based on the drawn control chart to synthesize the seriousness, harmfulness and controllability of the infectious disease to respond promptly. Conclusion The joint application of ARIMA model and control chart method has a good early warning accuracy and is a good early warning model for epidemic situation of infectious diseases.