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本文通过采取重标极差分析(R/S)来研究相关数据,我们发现美国证券市场和中国证券市场均存在平均长度不同的非周期循环,美国证券市场的波动周期比中国的长。而且它们都具有状态持续性,但是中国证券市场相对更容易出现反转。就二者差异原因而言,一方面是因为中国证券市场尚处于成长时期;另一方面,多变的政策成为导致中国证券市场非周期变化的重要原因。
In this paper, we study the correlation data by using R / S. We find that the average length of the non-cyclical cycle varies between the U.S. and China stock markets. The volatility period of the U.S. stock market is longer than that of China. And they all have status continuity, but the Chinese stock market is relatively more prone to reversal. On the one hand, the reason for the difference between the two is that the stock market in China is still in its growth stage; on the other hand, the volatile policy has become an important reason leading to the non-cyclical changes in China’s stock market.